用通径分析方法建立水稻纹枯病气象等级模型  

The Establishment of Meteorological Level Model of Rice Sheath Blight with Path Analysis Method

作　　者：万素琴[1] 徐荣钦 刘志雄[1] 陈晨 

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心/湖北省气象局,武汉430074 [2]湖北省植物保护总站,武汉430070 [3]宜昌市气象局,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2012年第2期286-289,294,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局2010年气候变化专项(ccsf-04);湖北省气象局科技发展基金(2007Y01)

摘　　要：基于大量前人研究成果提出水稻纹枯病综合气象等级预报模型γn=sum (Ci×Pi) from 1 to k;在分析不同气象因子对水稻纹枯病影响规律基础上,采用最优分析法,给出每个气象因子分级标准,得出每个因子在不同量值上对应的气象等级值Pi;利用荆州市往年水稻纹枯病发生面积及对应年份5～8月逐日气象资料,采用通径分析法,确定每个气象因子对纹枯病影响权重,从而建立基于逐日气象要素的水稻纹枯病气象等级模型,可以用于过去3～5 d(或周、旬)纹枯病气象条件监测和未来3～5 d(或周、旬)气象条件对纹枯病发生发展适宜程度预报。经检验,预报气象等级与病虫害实际发生等级吻合率为65%,方法简单可行,易于推广。Based on a large number of research results,the comprehensive meteorological concept model of rice sheath blight was put forward as γn=sum （Ci×Pi） from 1 to k.Furthermore,on the basis of analysis of different meteorological factors impacting the rice sheath blight and optimal analysis,the classification criterion of every meteoralogical factors was given;And Pi value for each factor corresponding to different quantity value was caculated.Then using the history data of Jingzhou rice sheath blight area and the daily weather data from May to August of each year,path analysis method was applied to determine the weight Ci of each climatic factor on the rice sheath blight,so as to establish the meteorological level model of rice sheath blight based on daily meteorological elements.It could be used for the monitoring of rice sheath blight weather condition in the past 3~5 days（or weeks,ten days） and the prediction of weather conditions suitable for the development of rice sheath blight in the next 3~5 days（or ten days）.Through the tests,the accuracy for the prediction was 65%.The model is simple and easy to be used and promoted.

关 键 词：通径分析 水稻纹枯病 气象等级 模型 

分 类 号：Q964[生物学—昆虫学] S435.111.42[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]