中国人口年龄结构合理转化问题研究  

Research on Feasible Transition of Age Structure in China

作　　者：马瀛通[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2012年第1期2-13,111,共12页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"人口年龄结构转化理论研究"(项目号:10BRK007);国家人口和计划生育委员会"人口发展战略"课题阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章将欧洲发达国家与中国历经的人口实践进行比较,探讨西方人口转变理论的不足,进而提出人口转变的方向及完成与否的判别标准。文章在构建年龄结构转化理论的基础上,严格区分了相对过剩人口与相对适宜人口,指出未完成年龄结构转化过程的发展中国家与相对基本完成年龄结构转化过程的发达国家人口状况的区别,从而论证中国人口年龄结构转化的日趋合理性。With comparison of demographic changes between the developed European countries and China,this paper has discussed the shortcomings of the Western demographic transition theories.Furthermore,the paper has proposed the direction of demographic transition and the criteria of such transition's completion.With the establishment of age-structure transition theory,and helped with strict definitions of both surplus population and appropriate population,the paper points out the distinction of demographic age-structure between those developing countries that are undergoing demographic transition and those developed countries with a near completion of such demographic transition.Finally it concludes that China's transition of age structure is moving towards a feasible direction.

关 键 词：相对过剩人口 年龄结构转化 非稳定人口 准静止人口 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]