基于贝叶斯估计的直流电法探测可靠性评价  

Reliability Evaluation of DC Method Based on Bayesian

作　　者：李丰军[1,2] 翁克瑞[1] 龚承柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]平煤股份五矿,河南平顶山450007

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2012年第2期158-162,共5页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573101);中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心开放基金资助项目(2009B012)

摘　　要：通过研究矿井直流电法探测结果,提出了基于贝叶斯估计的直流电法探测结果可靠性评价。为了合理地考虑评价过程中各种信息,使用了混合Beta先验分布,并根据历史样本确定了先验分布参数和继承因子,然后利用后验分布分析了直流电法探测结果的可靠性。最后,结合平煤股份五矿采区实际情况,分析了不同采区使用直流电法探测后效果,结果表明,该方法可以作为煤矿企业实施直流电法探测技术依据,提高水害防治的成本投资效益。This paper,using probability theory,proposed a method to evaluate the reliability of DC method based on Bayesian by studying the results of DC detection.In order to properly consider all kinds of information in processing,using the mixed Beta distribution,the prior distribution parameters and inheriting factor were identified in terms of historical samples,then used the posterior distribution to determine reliability of DC method and decision-making.Finally,combined No.5 Coal Mine of PingMei,calculated the reliability of different mining areas.The results show that this method can be used to prevent and control of water disasters by coal mining enterprises,which could improve the benefit of investment.

关 键 词：直流电法 贝叶斯估计 BETA分布 可靠性评价 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]