基于系统动力学的广西北部湾经济区需水预测  

Water Demand Prediction in Northern Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi Province Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：覃杰香[1] 王琳 黄国如[1] 范群芳 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640 [2]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第2期28-31,55,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费基金资助项目(200801089);中国工程院重大咨询专项基金资助项目(2010-ZD-5)

摘　　要：基于系统动力学理论与方法构建了社会经济—水资源—生态环境系统动力学模型,以广西北部湾经济区为例预测需水量,并分析了预测结果的合理性。结果表明,广西北部湾经济区需水量2015年为137.82×108 m3,2020年为155.68×108 m3,2030年为178.08×108 m3。利用系统动力学方法预测需水可系统地考虑各种需水影响因素,适用于中长期水资源规划。Based on system dynamics theory and method,the social economy-water resources-eco-environmental system dynamics model is developed.Taking water demand forecasting of the Northern Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi Province for an example,the rationality of prediction results are analyzed.The results show that the total water demand of the Northern Gulf Economic Zone will be 13.782 billion m3 in 2015,15.568 billion m3 in 2020,and 17.808 billion m3 in 2030.System dynamics method is appropriate for middle and long-term water resources planning,which can comprehensively consider various influencing factors for forecasting water demand.

关 键 词：广西北部湾经济区 系统动力学 需水预测 中长期水资源规划 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]