燃气价格不确定下分布式发电的投资策略  

Distributed Generation Investment Strategy under Gas Price Uncertainty

作　　者：董全学[1] 魏阳[1] 李晨[1] 姜丹微[1] 曾鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第2期207-210,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：研究了天然气价格不确定性下基于实物期权模型的燃气分布式发电投资策略,概述了一次能源市场,给出了天然气价格波动模型,构建了分布式发电投资策略的实物期权模型,提出投资者可延迟投资等待价格信息,以降低投资风险,并通过算例分析了投资者的投资、扩容策略,比较了不同波动水平下直接投资和时序投资的投资阈值及适用性。结果表明,当天然气价格波动较小时直接投资较优,反之选择时序投资。Gas DG investment strategy based real option model is researched under uncertainty of natural gas price.Firstly,an overview of primary energy market is given and the price fluctuation model of natural gas is presented.Then,the real option model of distributed generation investment strategy is established.At the same time,it proposes that investors can postpone the investment to wait for price information and reduce investment risk.Finally,the investment and upgrade strategy are analyzed through a practical case study.In addition,the threshold price and feasibility of direct and sequential investment are studied under different price volatility levels.The results show that direct investment strategy is optimal under a low level of natural gas volatility;otherwise,sequential investment strategy is optimal.

关 键 词：燃气 分布式发电 投资策略 价格不确定 实物期权模型 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F830.591[经济管理—金融学]