以需求为导向的新型农村社会养老保险筹资规模测算——基于区域经济发展差异的筹资优化方案设计  

Demand-Oriented Estimates of the Fund-raising Size for the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance

作　　者：封铁英[1,2] 董璇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学社会保障统计与精算研究中心,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国软科学》2012年第1期65-82,共18页China Soft Science

基　　金：2009年国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD057);2009年教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09XJC840001);2011年中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(sk2011027)

摘　　要：随着经济社会发展、家庭结构变化、土地制度改革及劳动力乡城流动,农村传统养老保障功能严重弱化。为了有效满足农村养老需求、推进新农保试点扩面、实现新农保制度长期可持续发展,本文以需求为导向对新型农村社会养老保险筹资规模进行测算与优化研究,运用社会保障精算建模方法构建农村养老需求测算模型和新农保筹资规模测算模型,以陕西省为例对模型进行应用。研究结果表明:由于人口和政策因素,制度初期新农保筹资规模能够较好满足农村居民基本养老需求,而随着农村养老需求增长与老年抚养比加大,现行制度框架下新农保筹资规模难以满足农村居民基本养老需求。根据单一参数和组合参数调整的新农保筹资规模测算分析结果,本文基于区域经济发展差异对筹资方案进行优化设计,并提出增强财政支持力度、加快制度推进,加强缴费补贴激励效果、稳步提升个人缴费率,引入基础养老金变动机制、增强养老金基本保障功能,根据区域经济差异、合理调整筹资模式等相关对策建议。With the development of economy and society,the change of family structure,land system reform and labor country-city mobility,rural traditional security function is gradually weakened.In order to meet the demand of rural old-age effectively,expand the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance pilots,and achieve the long-term sustainable development of the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance System,this paper calculates and optimizes the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance fund-raising scale orientated by demand,and constructs the rural pension demand calculation model and the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance fund-raising scale calculation model by using modeling method of actuarial science for social security,and takes Shaanxi Province as an applied example.The results show that：as the population and policy factors,the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance fund-raising scale can meet the rural pension demand in the system early stage;but as the increasing trend of rural pension demand and the aged dependency ratio,the New Type Rural Social Endowment Insurance fund-raising scale can＇t meet the rural pension demand in the future.According to the adjustment and analysis of single and combination parameters,the paper designs fund-raising optimization scheme for different economic development regions,and puts forward some suggestions：increasing financial support to accelerate system promotion;enhancing the incentive effects of subsidy to increase personal contribution rate steadily;introducing basic pension variation mechanism to strengthen basic pension security function;adjusting fund-raising model reasonably for different economic development regions.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险 筹资规模 筹资优化 农村养老需求 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]