重新认识中国的人口形势  

Re-thinking China's Demographic Situation

作　　者：郭志刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2012年第1期96-111,6,共16页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“我国人口发展与经济社会可持续发展战略研究”(项目批准号:08ARK001)的成果之一

摘　　要：中国人口进入低生育率时期已经20年了,但长期以来人口研究对这种重大转变认识不足。全国第六次人口普查数据证实,以往严重高估出生水平和生育水平,低估人口老龄化进程,人口发展规划目标一再出现大幅落空。人口预测模拟结果表明,中国人口在21世纪中的主要矛盾已经由总人口规模问题转向人口年龄结构问题,未来人口老龄化来势凶猛。中国人口发展正处于极为关键的时刻,而以往人口理论宣传和估计预测中的偏向误导了对人口大趋势的正确把握,造成中国生育率严重过低,导致未来过度的少子化和老龄化的人口风险。China has had a low fertility rate for about 20 years,but such an important transition has long beenneglected.The sixth national census in 2010 once again confirms that the country's birth and fertilitylevels have been badly over-estimated while population ageing has been seriously under-estimated.Asa result,China has once again missed its population policy targets.Population simulation andprojection indicate that population age structure rather than its size has turned to become the primarydemographic challenge for China by the middle of this century and population ageing is accelerating.China is at a critical moment in terms of population evolution.The highly biased policy promotion anderroneous estimation have misled policymakers and caused problems such as low fertility and lack ofchildren and excessive ageing in the future.

关 键 词：低生育率 人口风险 少子化 老龄化 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]