产业结构调整的低碳效应测度——基于NSGA-Ⅱ遗传算法  

Calculation of Low-Carbon Effect of Industrial Structure Adjustment in Jiangsu Province——Based on NSGA-Ⅱ

作　　者：牛鸿蕾[1] 江可申[2] 

机构地区：[1]徐州工程学院管理学院,江苏徐州221008 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2012年第1期62-69,94,共9页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目"低碳经济发展模式下的江苏制造业结构调整研究"(项目编号:2010SJD790039)

摘　　要：如今,中国面临高速发展与低碳的深层次矛盾,产业结构调整被普遍认为是一种有效的低碳发展途径;为测算产业结构变动产生的低碳效应,本文构建了投入产出多目标优化模型,以江苏省为例,采用带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)模拟运算,求得Pareto最优解集;与以往研究不同,本文缩小范围,集中关注产业结构因素,更具针对性,所采用的遗传算法在该领域内运用得还不多。结果表明:在保证稳定增长与就业的前提下,产业结构调整作为减少碳排放的手段仍在一定范围内有效;应推动低能耗、低排放、高附加值的高新技术产业和新兴产业,发展包括现代服务业在内的低碳型第三产业;节能技术的创新开发和应用,技术进步与结构调整的协调一致,是关键所在。Nowadays China is facing some deep-seated contradictions between development and lowering carbon, and in- dustrial restructuring is widely regarded as an effective way to realize low-carbon development In order to calculate the low-car- bon effect of industrial structure adjustment, the paper built a multi-objective optimization model of input-output, based on Jiangsu Province the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm- Ⅱ （ NSGA- Ⅱ） was used for simulations, and the Pareto optimal solution set was obtained. It is different from the former related studies that the paper narrowed the study scope and focused on the factor of industry structure, and its genetic arithmetic using is not very common in this field. The results show that under the premise of stable growth and employment, industrial restructuring as a means of reducing carbon emissions will be still val- id within a certain range; the high-tech industries and burgeoning industries with low-energy consumption, low emission hut high added value should be promoted, and the modem service industry, belonging to the low-carbon tertiary industry, need to be actively developed; the energy-saving technology＇s innovative development and application, and the harmonious cooperation between technological progress and structural adjustment are very key.

关 键 词：产业结构 低碳效应 多目标优化 NSGA-Ⅱ遗传算法 PARETO最优解集 

分 类 号：F260[经济管理—国民经济]