运输费用、需求分布与产业转移——基于区位论的模型分析  

Transport Cost,Demand Distribution and Industrial Relocation——Analysis of a Model Based on Location Theory

作　　者：郑鑫[1,2] 陈耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836 [2]河南省社会科学院农村发展研究所,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2012年第2期57-67,共11页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"引导产业有序转移与促进区域协调发展研究"(批准号09&ZD028);国家社会科学基金青年项目"中西部承接产业转移的效率评价与福利测度研究"(批准号11CJY016)

摘　　要：产业转移的理论基础是注重生产成本分析的雁阵模型和产品生命周期理论,但这两类理论并没有考虑空间因素的影响。本文在现有产业转移理论的基础上,使用"分散式转移"和"集中式转移"的阶段划分来描述产业转移的一般过程,并引入运输费用、需求分布等空间变量,构建了基于区位论思想的两地区模型;在规模报酬不变和规模报酬递增的假定下,分别讨论了产业转移的实现条件和形式,发现地区生产成本的相对变化并不必然导致产业转移的发生。使用该模型分析中国现实,发现集中式转移对于促进区域协调发展的作用要大于分散式转移;而运输费用的下降和内需的扩大将提高集中式转移的动力,地方保护主义阻碍了集中式转移但助推了分散式转移。The basic theories of industrial relocation mainly consist of Flying Geese Model and product cycle theory, which are both founded on the analysis of manufacturing cost. However, both of them have not taken the influences of spatial factors into account. Based on the thoughts of the two theories above as well as location theory, this paper uses the concepts of ＂dispersing relocation＂ and ＂concentrating relocation＂ to depict the general process of industrial relocation, and uses spatial variables such as transport cost and demand distribution to create a two-region model. Using this model, the conditions and the styles of relocation are respectively discussed in the assumptions of constant and increasing returns to scale, and a key conclusion is reached that the relative changes of regional manufacturing costs cannot necessarily induce industrial relocation. Applying this model to analyzing the facts of China, the authors find that the function of concentrating relocation to promote regional coordination is more important than that of dispersing relocation; And the decreasing of transport cost and the increasing of domestic demand will strengthen the motivation of the concentrating relocations, and local protectionism is hindering concentrating relocations while boosting dispersing relocations.

关 键 词：产业转移 运输费用 需求分布 区位论 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]