北京市朝阳区户籍居民循环系统疾病死亡与大气污染关系的时间序列研究  

Time-series analysis on relationship between air pollution and mortality from circulatory system diseases among registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing

作　　者：张金艳[1] 张政[1] 孟海英[1] 张桂斌[1] 赵伟[1] 潘小川[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市朝阳区疾病预防控制中心,100021 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2012年第2期139-142,共4页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：基金项目：国家自然科学基金（20637020）

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市朝阳区户籍居民循环系统疾病死亡与大气污染物可吸入颗粒物（PM30）、SO2、NO2浓度的相关性。方法2004年1月至2008年9月期间户籍居民死亡数据源于朝阳区CDC，SO2、NO2、PM10的13均浓度来源于北京市环境监测中心，日均气温和相对湿度数据来源于北京市气象局。使用广义相加模型（generalized additive model，GAM）分析PM10、SO2以及NO2与居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系。结果2004年1月至2008年9月，北京市朝阳区户籍居民循环系统疾病死亡人数累计19241例，SO2、NO2、PM10日均浓度分别为48．7、63．9、146．1ug／m3。单污染物模型显示，大气PM10、SO2、NO2每增加10ug／m3，分别导致北京市朝阳区户籍居民循环系统疾病死亡增加0．20％（95％CI：0．01％-0．39％）、0．36％（95％ CI：-0．13％-0．85％）和0．30％（95％CI：-0．34％-0．94％）。多污染物模型显示，PM10和SO2对循环系统疾病死亡的影响有统计学意义（P〈0．05），NO2对循环系统疾病死亡的影响无统计学意义（P〉0．05）。结论本研究结果提示户籍居民循环系统疾病死亡与大气PM10、SO2浓度呈正相关，与NO2浓度无相关性。Objective This study aims to investigate relationship between daily concentration of PM10,SO2, NO2 and daily mortality due to circulatory system diseases in Chaoyang district, Beijing. Methods The time-series data of daily mortality from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang were obtained from Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The daily concentration of sulfur dioxide （ SO2 ）, nitrogen dioxide （ NO2 ） , and particulate matter （ PM10 ） were collected from Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center. And the routine monitoring meteorological data were collected from Beijing Meteorological Bureau, including daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity. The time-series analysis was then conducted to determine the relationship of mortality from circulatory system diseases with daily concentrations of SO2 ,NO2 and PM10 by using Poisson regression with generalized additive model （GAM）. Results During January 2004 to September 2008, the cumulative death number from circulatory system diseases of registered residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing was 19 241, the daily average concentration of SO2 , NO2, PM10 was 48.7,63.9,146. 1 ug/m3 , respectively. The single pollutant model showed an increase of daily concentration of PMlo, SO2 and NO2 by 10 ug/m3 will augment the mortality from circulatory system diseases by 0. 20% （95% CI：0. 01% -0. 39% ） ,0. 36% （95% CI： - 0. 13% -0. 85% ） and 0. 30% （95% CI： - 0. 34% - 0. 94% ）, respectively. In the multiple air pollutants models, combinatorial effects of PM10 and SO2 still positively correlated with increased mortality from circulatory system diseases（P 〈0. 05） ,whereas changes of the concentration of NO2 had no significant effect on mortality from circulatory system diseases （P 〉 0. 05 ）. Conclusion Our findings in this study elucidated that changes of the concentration of PMlo and SO2 had a positive correlation with daily mortality from circulatory system disease

关 键 词：空气污染物 模型 统计学 时间序列研究 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R188[医药卫生—流行病学]