基于Markov过程的逆向物流回收量预测  

Prediction of the Returns of Reverse Logistics Based on Markov Process

作　　者：陈义华[1] 许庆春[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学数学与统计学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2012年第1期108-111,共4页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

摘　　要：为了对逆向物流中回收品的数量进行预测,减少回收数量不确定性给企业管理带来的困难,将产品的生命周期分为若干阶段,在已知状态转移概率矩阵和初始状态的情况下,运用Markov过程原理预测某一指定期期末的物品回收数量和报废数量。最后通过算例验证了Markov预测的有效性。In order to predict the amount of recycled materials in reverse logistics and reduce the difficulties caused by the uncertainty of the returns to the enterprise management,the product life cycle is divided into several phases.Under the case of the state transition matrix and initial state known,by using Markov process theory,the amount of recovery and scrapped materials at the end of a specified period is predicted.Finally,a numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of Markov prediction.

关 键 词：逆向物流 不确定性 回收量预测 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]