堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用  

Research and application of comprehensive safety model and risk judgement system of embankment engineering

作　　者：王亚军[1,2] 张楚汉[2] 金峰[2] 张我华[3,4] 吴昌瑜[5] 任大春[5] 

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋学院船舶与建筑工程学院,浙江舟山316000 [2]清华大学土木水利学院,北京100084 [3]温州大学建筑与土木工程学院,浙江温州325035 [4]浙江大学软弱土与环境土工教育部重点实验室,浙江杭州310027 [5]中国长江科学院土工科学研究所,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第1期101-108,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109118);中国博士后科学基金项目(20100470344);浙江海洋学院校级重大研究项目(21045032610);浙江海洋学院博士启动基金项目(21045011909)

摘　　要：为获得荆南长江干堤的安全特性,在层次分析法及模糊一致理论的基础上,考虑堤防工程水、土两相系材料的特点,建立了模糊综合评判系统结构模型。通过正态型模糊隶属函数,结合两种权值理论实现了对堤防工程的安全综合评判。在模糊综合评判结论的基础上,结合模式识别的间接方法,提出了广义多维加权模糊识别模型,实现了对典型堤身段的安全模式识别,并对模型指标体系作了敏感性分析。所得成果比较全面地反映了干堤在复杂运行条件下的综合安全特性,对指导工程现场管理与监测有现实意义。对于复杂堤防系统,模糊综合评判是实现全面风险分析的有效手段,而广义多维加权模糊识别模型可以为工程安全决策提供有力依据。In order to obtain the comprehensive characteristics of main embankment of Yangtse Rive in southern Jingzhou Zone of China, considering solid-liquid two phases behavior of the embankment, and based on the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy consistency theorem, a fuzzy comprehensive judgement system model was constructed. With normal fuzzy membership function and two weighted theories, embankment construction safety comprehensive judgement was realized. Based on the conclusion of fuzzy comprehensive judgement and combining with indirect method of model discrimination, generalized muhi-dimensional weighted fuzzy discriminating model was set up. Furthermore, typical embankment section safety model discrimination was implemented and sensitivity analysis of the model system was carried out. Engineering philosophies founded here comprehensively reflects the safety characteristics of the main embankment under complicated engineering background, and is applicable to direct embankment system management and monitoring on site.

关 键 词：水 土两相系材料 正态型模糊隶属函数 安全综合评判 安全模式识别 广义多维加权模 糊识别模型 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TU4[建筑科学—土工工程]