人民币境外流通规模的估算——基于货币需求缺口模型的实证研究  

The Study on the Estimate of the External Demand of RMB Currency——Based on the Theoretical Model of Money Demand Gap

作　　者：石建勋[1] 全淑琴[1] 李海英[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第1期65-71,共7页Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金规划项目(10BGJ019)

摘　　要：为更好地对人民币境外流通规模进行估算,文章对传统的货币需求缺口模型进行改进:增加用于股票市场和土地市场交易的第三种货币需求m3,通过从实际货币供应中扣除国内各种货币需求和沉淀货币,间接估算境外人民币流通数量。在此基础上,文章运用改进后的估算模型以1996年第一季度到2005年第二季度的数据为基础,对2005年第三季度到2010年第二季度的人民币境外持有规模进行了估算,并根据估算结果提出相应的政策建议。To estimate the external demand of RMB currency, this paper improves the traditional model of money demand gap by increasing the third money demand M3 in the stock market and land market. By deducting the domestic money demands and Settling Money （SM） from the practical currency supply, this paper indirectly estimates the external demand of REM currency. Accordingly, based on the data collected between the first quarter of 1996 and the second quarter of 2005, the improved model is used to estimate the scale of RMB currency held outside China from the third quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2010. Suggests are put forward according to the result of the estimation.

关 键 词：人民币 境外流通量 货币需求m3 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]