货币政策调控房地产市场效果的实证研究  

Empirical study of monetary policy effects on real estate market

作　　者：赖一飞[1] 周雅[1] 龙倩倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2012年第1期87-90,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(编号:10YJA630077)

摘　　要：采用时间序列计量模型来分析货币政策调控房地产市场的效果,主要通过货币供应量和房地产市场价格两个变量之间的关系来对其进行研究,并采用2010年1月至2011年9月的月度数据进行实证分析.研究结果表明:货币供应量和房地产市场价格之间存在较为显著的正相关关系,且在滞后3至6月时货币供应量是房地产市场价格的格兰杰原因,说明货币政策调控房地产市场的效果存在一个3至6月的滞后期.Based on the econometric model of time series,the effects of monetary policy on the real estate market are studied by using the two variables of money supply and the real estate price.The monthly data from January 2010 to September 2011 are used for empirical study.The results show that there exists significant positive correlation between money supply and real estate price;and the money supply is the Granger cause of real estate price in lags between 3 to 6 months.It is also shown that there is a monetary policy lag between 3 to 6 months to affect the real estate market.

关 键 词：货币政策 货币供应量 房地产价格 时间序列 经济计量模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]