基于粮食安全和指数平滑模型的耕地保有量预测研究——以福建省宁德市为例  

Research on Prediction of Land Quantity Based on Food Security and Exponential Smoothing Model:the Case of Ningde City in Fujian Province

作　　者：占纪文[1,2] 林锦彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福州350002 [2]福建农林大学作物科学学院,福州350002

出　　处：《科技和产业》2012年第2期72-76,共5页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：耕地保有量对于一个地区粮食安全、经济安全、生态安全和社会稳定等都具有重要意义。本文以福建省宁德市为例,根据耕地、人口、粮食等指标的统计数据,采用基于粮食安全的耕地需求法和指数平滑模型两种方法对2010至2015年的耕地保有量进行预测,并进行综合预测分析,结果分别为139 727hm2、136 037hm2、137 907hm2、134 962hm2、134962hm2、134 122hm2、155 496hm2。而后提出了加强耕地保护的相关对策建议。Land quantity has a significant influence on food security, economic security, ecological security, social stability and some related aspects in one area. In this paper, Ningde city was selected as a study area, and its land quantities from 2010 to 2015 were predicted in accordance with the statistical index in land, population and grain, by using the methods of land demand based on food security and exponential smoothing model. The results from comprehensive prediction and analysis were 139 727hm^2 , 136 037 hm^2 , 137 907 hm^2 , 134 962 hm^2 , 134 962 hm^2 , 134 122 hm^2 , 155 496hm^2. Besides,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.

关 键 词：粮食安全 指数平滑 耕地保有量 预测 宁德市 

分 类 号：F307.11[经济管理—产业经济]