Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions  

作　　者：MA JieHua WANG HuiJun ZHANG Yin 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2012年第8期921-926,共6页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421406);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130103);Norwegian Research Council Project "East-Asia DecCen"

摘　　要：Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide attention.These snowstorms have raised an important scientific question.Under scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" condition.We then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate change.The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North America.The Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all weaken.However,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to north.In addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide attention. These snowstorms have raised an important scientific question. Under scenarios of future global warming, will winter precipitation in China increase sig nificantly and produce more snow in the north？ Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP 3） model projec tions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario, we generated a possible future Arctic condition, the summer （September） ＂icefree Arctic＂ condition. We then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature （SST） values and a set of CO2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, for simulating East Asian climate change. The experimental results show that during the boreal winter （DecemberJanuaryFebruary; DJF）, global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario, producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North America. The Siberian High, Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all weaken. However, because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north, winter precipitation would increase from south to north. In addition, the signifi cant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关 键 词：大气环流模式 冬季降水 中国北方 北极地区 模式模拟 夏季 东亚冬季风 二氧化碳浓度 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121