中国绿色食品产业发展演化阶段的判定与分析  

Determination and Analysis of the Development Stages of Chinese Green Food

作　　者：宋国宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2012年第3期136-143,共8页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"中国绿色食品产业结构优化升级与创新宏观管理研究"(70873030)

摘　　要：通过分析绿色食品产业所处生命周期阶段及其特征,运用生长曲线(逻辑斯蒂曲线和龚伯兹曲线)拟合绿色食品产业的发展演化过程,对其整体演化轨迹进行测定并进行阶段划分。得出的基本结论和启示是:①中国绿色食品产业发展从2006年开始进入快速发展的成长期,产业呈现明显的上升态势;②绿色食品产业经过成长期的适度规模扩张后必须积极促进绿色食品产业向成熟期过渡,政府产业政策的重点不是做"大"而是做"强",通过进行产业结构调整,提高绿色食品产业的技术含量与创新能力,实现产业效率提升和产业竞争力增强。研究结论对于揭示绿色食品产业发展演化的内在规律,为政府制定符合生命周期阶段特征的产业发展规划与产业政策提供了科学依据。As a historical process, industry evolution is closely related to the industry development phase. The study on industry development phase is the logical starting point and realistic basis. This paper analyzes the life cycle phase and its characteristics, fits the development process of green food industry by growth curve, and determines the overall evolution track and development phase. The basic conclusion and enlightenment are as follows： ①Green food industry enters into growth phase from 2006 on and has a dramatic upward trend;②Effective measures must be taken to promote the transition to mature phase after a moderate scale extension of green food industry during growth phase, the emphasis of industry policy concentrates on ＂strong＂ not ＂big＂ and enhances technical innovation abilities by industrial adjustment to improve industry efficiency and industry competitiveness. The conclusions reveals the inherent evolution law of green food industry and provides scientific references for industry planning and industry policies, which accord with the phase characteristics of industry life cycle.

关 键 词：绿色食品产业 发展阶段 判定 生长曲线 结构调整 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]