气候变化对库尔勒香梨始花期的影响及其预测模型  

The Impact and Prediction of Climate Change on First-flowering Date of Korla Fragrant Pear

作　　者：李晓川[1] 陶辉[2] 张仕明[1] 刘厚勇 

机构地区：[1]新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,库尔勒841000 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京210008 [3]新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州塔中气象站,库尔勒841000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2012年第1期119-123,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41101023);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金(2011490802)

摘　　要：利用1980-2010年库尔勒市气象局农业气象站香梨物候观测资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响香梨始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果表明,近31a来,受气候变化影响,库尔勒香梨始花期有明显的提前趋势(P<0.01);香梨始花期与冬季平均气温、春季气温以及不同深度地温呈显著负相关关系(P<0.01);而与开春日期及5日平均气温>10℃日期呈显著正相关关系(P<0.01)。利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立了香梨始花期的预测模型,并进行校正,通过检验模型效果良好,可为香梨始花期预报提供参考。Based on observed phenophase data and ground meteorological data of Korla meteorology station from 1980 to 2010,the meteorological factors of affecting the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering were analyzed.The results showed that beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering advanced earlier in last 31 years（P0.01）.There was significant negative relationship between the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering and average temperature of spring and winter,as well as ground temperature with different depth in spring.There was significant positive relationship between the beginning date and daily mean temperature above 5°C and 10°C for five consecutive days.Prediction model for the beginning date of the Korla fragrant pear flowering was established by using of Partial Least Squares Regression method.

关 键 词：库尔勒香梨 始花期 影响因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学] S162.5[农业科学—园艺学]