基于改进GM(1,1)模型的弹道导弹位置信息预测  

Prediction of the Ballistic Missile Position Information Based on Improved GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：齐德庆[1] 李为民[2] 王还乡[1] 李龙跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学导弹学院,陕西三原713800 [2]空军工程大学训练部,陕西西安710051

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期37-41,共5页Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"863"计划资助项目(08AAAXXX105)

摘　　要：针对弹道导弹速度快、雷达反射截面积小,预警雷达很难全程跟踪预警的问题,提出了使用改进的GM(1,1)模型对其位置信息进行预测。从初始序列光滑度、背景值构造方式和初始条件3方面进行综合改进,建立了新的改进模型,明确了建模步骤。仿真结果表明,改进后的模型比传统GM(1,1)模型适用范围更广,精度更高,可以用于弹道导弹的位置信息预测。Aimed at the problems that the ballistic missile is quick in speed,the RCS of radar is small and it is very difficult for the early-warning radar to track the whole early-warning course,the improved GM（1,1） model is advanced to predict the position information of the ballistic missile.The smooth degree of original date sequence,the conformation method of background value and the beginning condition are improved in the new model,at the same time,an improved new model is built and the modeling steps are put forward.The simulation result shows that compared with the traditional GM（1,1） model,the prediction precision of the improved model is greatly improved and the application area is extended,so it can be used to predict the position information of the ballistic missile.

关 键 词：改进GM(1 1)模型 位置信息预测 弹道导弹 

分 类 号：TJ761.3[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]