小陇山林区葡萄长须卷蛾危害面积的气象预测研究  

Study of forecasting grape may roll moth attacked area in Xialong Mountain forest zone

作　　者：许彦平[1,2] 姚晓红 袁伯顺 姚延峰[3] 姚晓琳[3] 包曲灵 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省天水农业气象试验站,甘肃天水741000 [3]甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水741000 [4]甘肃省漳县气象局,甘肃漳县748300

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期81-86,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：甘肃省气象局气象科研面上项目(2011-15)

摘　　要：【目的】根据气象因素与葡萄长须卷蛾发生的关系,对甘肃小陇山林区该虫的危害面积进行预测预报,为林业病虫灾害的预防工作提供指导。【方法】利用逐步回归统计方法,分析了影响甘肃小陇山林区葡萄长须卷蛾危害面积与主要气象因子的关系,建立了该林区葡萄长须卷蛾危害面积的气象预测数学模型。【结果】甘肃小陇山林区葡萄长须卷蛾适宜温暖、干燥的气候环境,不耐低温。冬、春季温暖干燥的气候有利于卷蛾安全越冬和春季出蛰;盛夏相对较多的降水不仅可改善大气的相对湿度,而且能缓解高温对卷蛾活动取食的影响,有利于卷蛾产卵并提高幼虫的孵化率和成活率;夏末温暖干燥的气候,特别是持续温暖、干燥的夜间气象条件,有利于幼虫活动取食,最终会造成葡萄长须卷蛾的早发生和大面积危害。经过对预测模型的历史回代拟合检验可知,甘肃小陇山林区葡萄长须卷蛾1992-2007年实际危害面积与预测值的平均绝对误差百分率为4.7%,其中绝对误差在5.0%以内的预报准确率为62.5%,绝对误差在10.0%以内的预报准确率为87.5%。并采用该模型对2008,2009和2010年该林区葡萄长须卷蛾危害面积进行了试报检验,3年的绝对误差百分率分别为2.6%,7.8%和4.7%。【结论】所建的葡萄长须卷蛾危害面积气象预测模型的试报效果较理想,可以为甘肃小陇山林区葡萄长须卷蛾的预防工作提供指导。【Objective】Based on the relationship between the climatic factors and grape may moth pest development,the methods of forecasting grape may roll moth were studied,which provided guide for the work of forest protection.【Method】The relationship between the attacked area of grape may roll moth and main meterological factors was analyzed and the mathematic model for forecasting the attacked area was set up with stepwise regression method.【Result】The grape may month pest prefer warm and dry climatic condition than cold weather.The warm and dry weather is favorable for the animal to come out in spring and winter.The rainy days improve the humid and protect high temperature harmful effectors for the pest in midsummer that would be favorable for the adult laying eggs and improving the larvae roll moth hatch rates and the survival rate.The warm and dry weather in later summer is favorable for larvae to devour the leaves and then the large harmful area to come out.We forecast attached area from 1992 to 2007,16 years in all.The results show that the average absolute error was 4.7%.The absolute error within 5.0% was 62.5% and within 10.0% was 87.5%.We forecast the attacked area in 2008,2009 and 2010 with the model and absolute errors 2.6%,7.8% and 4.7% respectively.【Conclusion】The forecast results are better and the model could meet the business service needs.

关 键 词：小陇山林区 葡萄长须卷蛾 危害面积 气象因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：S165.28[农业科学—农业气象学] S763.42[农业科学—农业基础科学]