天然气消费量组合预测建模及应用  

MODELING AND APPLICATION OF GM(1,1),GROWTH CURVE AND MARKOV COMBINATION TO NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION FORECAST

作　　者：高军[1] 宋书贵[1] 吴鹏[1] 熊璟[1] 李权锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第1期6-10,共5页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"央企与驻地政府应对重大突发事件联动机制研究"(10CZZ038);教育部人文社科基金项目"完善突发事件应急管理机制研究--以川渝地区天然气开采安全突发事故为例"(09XJCZH011)

摘　　要：2011年是"十二五"规划实施的第一个年头,四川省是我国天然气的生产和消费大省,对天然气消费量的有效预测对于四川"十二五"期间相关产业发展、能源消费结构调整具有指导作用,对顺利实现"十二五"能源战略目标具有重大的现实意义。基于标准差法的灰色—增长曲线组合预测方法对四川"十二五"期间的天然气消费量进行了预测,再用马尔科夫链对预测结果进行修正,以提高精度。结果表明:此天然气消费量组合预测模型具有较高的精度和应用价值。Sichuan province is a major producer and consumer of natural gas in China,and an effective forecast of natural gas consumption serves as guidance to industry development and structure adjustment of energy consumption during the period of Sichuan's 12th five-year plan,and plays a significant role in achieving the energy strategic goal of the 12th five-year plan.Based on standard deviation method,a forecast is made on natural gas consumption in Sichuan during 2011 and 2015 by grey-growth curve combination forecast method,followed by an adjustment on the forecast result using the Markov chain,thus improving precision.The result demonstrates that the natural gas consumption combination forecasting model has high precision and application value.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 增长曲线 马尔科夫 天然气消费量 组合预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]