基于混合先验分布的弹射弹Bayes可靠性估计  

Reliability Assessment of Cartridge of Ejector Based on Mixed Beta Distribution

作　　者：张天飞[1] 董海平[1] 蔡瑞娇[1] 郝志[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国北方工业集团公司,北京100821

出　　处：《含能材料》2012年第1期113-116,共4页Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials

摘　　要：建立了一种综合利用单元试验数据和系统试验数据的弹射弹B aye s可靠性评估方法。该方法通过建立基于继承因子的混合B e ta先验分布,结合弹射弹试验数据确定后验分布,最后通过后验分布推断弹射弹可靠性。采用该方法及G JB 376-1987方法和传统贝叶斯方法,对某型弹射弹可靠性进行了评估。结果表明,在置信水平0.90情况下,三种方法可靠度评估结果分别为0.9922,0.978,0.996。表明本文方法是有效的,在相同的现场试验情况下,评估结果比经典统计方法更合理。A Bayesian reliability assessment method for cartridge of ejector was proposed. The reliability information of whole cartridge and its subsystems was comprehensively utilized in this method. Firstly, inheritance factor was determined,then mixed Beta distribution was established based on the reliability information of whole cartridge and its subsystems, lastly, the posterior distribution was used to assess system reliability. With new method and GJB376 -1987 method and the traditional Bayesian method,the reliability of a cartridge ejector was respectively evaluated to reach 0. 9922,0. 978,0. 996 under the confidence level 0. 90.The result shows that the new method is effective to evaluate the reliability of cartridge of ejector.

关 键 词：军事化学与烟火技术 弹射弹 可靠性 混合Beta分布 继承因子 后验分布 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] V244.21