基于模糊随机模拟的后寨河岩溶泉流量衰减风险  

Depletion risk assessment of discharge of Houzhaihe karst spring based on coupling method of stochastic simulation with triangular fuzzy numbers

作　　者：柯婷婷[1] 束龙仓[1] 鲁程鹏[1] 张蓉蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期113-117,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2006CB403204)

摘　　要：通过对贵州省后寨河岩溶泉流域泉流量与降水时间序列的动态分析,首先模拟了不同降水条件下泉流量的衰减过程线,建立了枯季泉流量与前期降水量之间的数学表达式,然后采用蒙特卡罗方法,利用随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型,进行泉流量衰减风险分析研究,得到了泉流量的概率分布.结果表明,泉流量小于0.1 m3/s的概率为43.5%.建议采取防范措施,以降低当地泉流量衰减的风险.Based on dynamic analysis of the time series of spring discharge and precipitation in the Houzhaihe karst spring basin in Guizhou Province, depletion curves of the spring discharge under different precipitation conditions were simulated and mathematical functions for the spring discharge in dry seasons and antecedent precipitation were established. The Monte-Carlo method and the coupling method of stochastic simulation with triangular fuzzy numbers were used to conduct the depletion risk assessment of the spring discharge, based on which the probability distribution of the spring discharge was obtained. The results show that the probability for the spring discharge of less than 0.01 m^3/s was 43.5%. It is suggested that preventive measures should be taken to reduce the depletion risk of spring discharge in the study area.

关 键 词：泉流量衰减 风险分析 蒙特卡罗方法 随机模拟 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]