三次产业结构演化与碳排放机制研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析  

Research on Mechanism of Thrice Industry Structure Evolutions and Carbon Emission:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

作　　者：张庆民[1,2] 葛世龙[1] 吴春梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,南京210046 [2]南京大学管理工程学院,南京210093 [3]南京审计学院国际审计学院,南京211815

出　　处：《科技与经济》2012年第1期101-105,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目--"环境压力及结构调整双重约束下能源替代策略研究"(项目编号:10YJC790062;项目负责人:葛世龙)成果之一

摘　　要：在已有研究成果基础上对我国产业结构与碳排放之间的内在关联性进行了分析,基于我国1995—2009年统计数据计算了第一、二、三产业经济结构与碳排放总量、碳排放增长率和碳排放强度的动态演化过程。结果表明,第一产业碳排放总量与碳排放强度远低于其他产业,但碳排放量增长率高于其GDP增长率;第二产业碳排量总量最高,碳排放增长率一直在高位运行且波动幅度较大,碳排放强度呈现明显下降趋势;第三产业碳排放总量却远低于第二产业,碳排放强度与第一产业相似,但其碳排放增长率较高。最后,探讨了我国低碳经济发展的趋势,并从碳排放总量、碳排放增长率和碳排放强度视角讨论了我国发展低碳经济的策略。Therefore, the correlation was drawn between the carbon emissions and the industrial structure based on available resuits. According to the formula, dynamic evolution of the carbon emissions quantities, carbon emissions growth and carbon intensity with China＇s primary, second and tertiary industries during 1995-2009 were computed. The results show that the primary industry has a lower proportion of the carbon emissions quantities and carbon intensity growth, but the annual carbon emissions growth rate is higher than GDP＇s growth rate ; as for the second industry, the carbon emissions is the largest, the annual carbon emissions growth is always at high levels and fluctuating, and carbon intensity shows a marked decrease trend; the carbon emissions quantities of tertiary industry is lower than that of the second industry, the carbon intensity in the primary industry is similar to the primary industry, and the carbon emissions growth has a increasing trend year by year. Finally, according to the calculation results, the development trend of China＇s lowcarbon economy is shown and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward from the perspectives of carbon emissions quantities, carbon emissions growth and carbon intensity.

关 键 词：产业结构 碳排放 低碳经济 动态演化 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]