陕西与全国生猪生产同步性研究  

Research on the Co-movement of Hog Output Fluctuation Between Shaanxi and China

作　　者：岳冬冬[1] 王征兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第1期32-37,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70273035);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-05-0859)

摘　　要：同步性是我国生猪生产波动的重要特征之一。利用相关系数法和同步系数法,结合1952-2007年年末生猪存栏量数据,对陕西与全国生猪生产波动的同步性特征进行了比较分析。结果显示:同步系数法的测度结果比相关系数更科学;陕西与全国生猪生产波动的同步性程度达到0.763 6,且这种同步性具有越来越强的变化趋势;以陕西省作为全国生猪生产波动的一个观测点,分析全国生猪生产波动趋势具有一定的科学性。Co-movement is one of the important characteristics of hog output fluctuation.This paper studies the co-movement characteristics of production fluctuation between Shaanxi and China by using correlation coefficient and simultaneous coefficient,with the data of the quantity of year-end pigs from 1952-2007.The results show that the result of simultaneous coefficient is more scientific than that of correlation coefficient;the co-movement of hog output fluctuation between Shaanxi and China is up to 0.7636,and the co-movement is becoming higher and higher;Shaanxi＇s hog output fluctuation could be taken as an observation point to forecast the trend of hog output fluctuation of the whole nation.

关 键 词：生猪生产波动 协动性 同步系数 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]