大型石油储罐区火灾风险预测预警技术研究  

Study of large oil storage tank zone fire risk forecast and early warning technology

作　　者：刘晅亚[1] 张清林[1] 秘义行[1] 许晓元[1] 

机构地区：[1]公安部天津消防研究所,天津300381

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2012年第2期192-196,共5页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：公安部消防局科研计划项目"石油化工火灾危险性预测与应急管理体系平台研究"(2009XFCX043);国家科技支撑计划项目"化学工业园区火灾防治技术研究"(2011BAK03B08)

摘　　要：针对目前我国大型石油储罐区储运工艺特点与作业条件,通过对典型石油储罐区火灾事故案例的统计与分析,在对罐区关键设备与工艺设施泄漏、火灾、爆炸特性以及事故场景与灾害演化模式分析的基础上,对石油储运罐区火灾风险影响因素以及罐区火灾、爆炸事故危险性进行研究。根据典型的火灾、爆炸事故场景特点,基于信息技术(GIS地理信息系统、RS遥感遥测系统等)与远程信号动态监测技术,提出大型石油储罐区火灾风险预测预警技术体系,即通过对罐区工艺设施状态参数的实时监测与分析,实现对罐区危险源与火灾风险的动态评价分析、监测监控、预测预警,并与系统动态决策、综合协调、应急联动以及优化决策等功能进行融合,以提高大型石油储罐区火灾防控以及灾害征兆预测预警技术能力与水平,实现对储罐区火灾风险的动态安全管理。According to the characteristics of the large-scale stor- age working equipments and process in large oil storage tank zone, based on the analysis of key equipments＇ leakages, fires, explosion and other disaster scenes and accident evolution model in the tank areas, the effect factors of the tanks area fire risk and fire ~ explosion accidents hazards were studied through the statistics and analysis of the typical petroleum tank zone fire ac cidents cases. Depending on the characteristics of different typi cal fire and explosion accidents scenarios, using the information technologies （G｜S geographic information system, R$ remote sensing and telemetry systems, etc. ） and remote singles moni- tor technologies, the large-scale oil storage tank area fire risk forecasting and early warning technology system were pro- posed. The status parameters of dangerous materials and process equipments can be carried out with real time measure- ment and monitoring. It can be realized to intergrade the fire risk dynamic analysis and evaluation, detection and monitoring, disasters prediction and early warning, including system dy- namic decision-making, comprehensive coordination, emergency response, by which to improve the fire fighting forces preven tion and control of large oil storage tank fire, disaster forecast and early warning signs, and level of technical capacity in order to achieve the dynamic security management of the storage tank area fire risk.

关 键 词：大型石油储罐区 火灾风险 预测预警 场景分析 事故模式 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU276.7[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]