2010年我国天灾预测结果的回顾  

Review of Forecast Result for China Natural Disaster in 2010

作　　者：廖留峰[1,2] 汤懋苍[1] 高晓清[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第1期144-149,共6页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家973计划项目(2008CB425704);中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所创新项目(0681121001)共同资助

摘　　要：2010年是我国的一个重灾年,利用天灾(旱、涝、震)预测方法,对2010年4月14日玉树强震、西南地区2009-2010年秋、冬、春季连续大旱、汛期长江中下游和青海省多雨、2010年8月7日晚暴雨引发的舟曲泥石流等天灾的预测过程进行了分析。结果表明,洪涝、干旱和强震等天灾均可与地球外核的对流活动(Benard对流)相联系,外核对流上升体对壳幔层的顶托是地震形成的原因。由于上升体中心与附近下沉体中心连线的中点是垂直速度的水平切变最强点,很可能就是震中位置所在。两个对流上升体在其中点因共振而形成的"拍频"效应是暴雨形成的原因;而强震后地壳复原(拉伸)效应则是干旱形成的原因。为了与岩石圈中渗流体的"浅地下系统"相区别,把这些活动统称为"深地下系统演变"。There are many natural disasters in 2010 in China.The prediction process is summarized based on the disaster（drought/flood/earthquake） forecasting methods which be advanced at the beginning of 2010.The prediction include Yushu microseism on 14 April,continuous drought in southwest of China through autumn to spring during 2009-2010.The severe precipitation of the mid-and lower-reaches of Yangtze River in the flood season which also happened in Qinghai Province,debris flow in Zhouqu which caused by downpour on 7 August.The analyzed results show that the natural disasters,which include drought,flood,earthquake and so on,are related with Benard convection in outer core of Earth.The earthquake process is that the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer,so the epicenter maybe is the midpoint of the uplifting and sinking where the horizontal shearing of vertical velocity is the most.The downpour is arosed that the mid-point of two convective uplifting fluid can constitute a ＇beat frequency＇ effect because of ＇beat＇.The reset（tension） of Crust effects after strong earthquake is the cause of drought.These actions are called as the ＇develop of the deep system below ground＇ collectively,so we can distinguish them from the fluid conductivity named ＇Shallow system＇ in lithosphere.

关 键 词：地气图方法 天灾预测 预测规则 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]