川西马尔康7月平均气温的重建及其气候周期信号检测  

Reconstructed Mean Temperature in Mearkang,West Sichuan in July and Its Detection of Climatic Period Signal

作　　者：喻树龙[1] 袁玉江[1] 魏文寿[1] 张同文[1] 尚华明[1] 陈峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所/新疆树木年轮生态实验室/中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第1期193-200,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806011);科技部科技基础性工作专项(2007FY220200);高原气象基金项目"四川西部树木年轮气候学研究";国家自然科学基金项目(40975056;41071072);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z13);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM200801);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLCS09-09);新疆气象局科学技术研究与应用技术开发项目"气候因子对巩乃斯河山区树木年轮密度的影响评估研究";新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室开放课题(XJYS0911-2009-01)共同资助

摘　　要：利用阿依拉山采样点的树木年轮标准化年表与川西高原的马尔康和红原前一年10月至当年9月的气候资料进行相关分析。结果表明,马尔康7月平均气温与阿依拉山采样点的树木年轮生长有较好的相关性,相关系数达0.644。利用树轮年表重建了1597-2005年马尔康7月平均气温序列,方差解释量为41.5%,经过检验,转换方程稳定可靠。检测409年重建气温序列的周期信号,发现重建序列存在3～4年、5～9年、21～28年和56～76年的周期振荡,其中较短的年际周期的强振荡期均出现在21世纪,中周期的强振荡期主要出现在最后一次小冰期,而长周期则在工业革命之前能量最强。Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlation were significant among tree-ring chronologies of Ayilashan and temperature in July at Maerkang and Hongyuan stations in West Sichuan,Considering the hysteresis of temperature about growth of tree,a average temperature series in July of 1597-2005 at Maerkang station was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 41.5% by means of the tree-ring chronology series.It was verified that the reconstructed temperature was reliable by leave-one-out.Some results obtained by analyzing the 409-year reconstructed temperature series are as follows： periods of temperature in July have 3～4,5～9,21～28 and 56～76 years.Strong energy of short periods have happened at high temperature age,middle one,in little ice age,and long one,before the industrial revolution.

关 键 词：川西马尔康 树木年轮 气候重建 

分 类 号：P463.22[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]