基于作物模型灾损识别的黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估  

Risk Evaluation for Spring Frost Disaster of Winter Wheat in Yellow River-Huai River Regions Based on Crop Model

作　　者：张雪芬[1] 余卫东[2] 王春乙[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081 [2]河南省气象科学研究所,河南郑州450003 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第1期277-284,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：重大农业气象灾害风险评估技术研究项目;"十一.五"国家科技支撑计划重点课题(2006BAD04B09);华北冬小麦干旱和晚霜冻风险识别与预测研究项目;国家自然科学基金项目(30771248)共同资助

摘　　要：利用近50年黄淮地区54个农业气象观测站的作物观测资料和气象资料,结合人工移动式霜箱试验结果,研究了WOFOST作物模型中增加晚霜冻影响的处理技术,揭示了晚霜冻对冬小麦各生长量的影响结果。利用修改后的作物模型提取晚霜冻灾损评估技术,建立以晚霜冻的危险性、暴露性和脆弱性为风险因子的风险评估模型,开展黄淮区域晚霜冻风险评估。结果表明,黄淮区域冬小麦晚霜冻风险分布呈西高东低分布,高风险地区主要分布在黄淮区域的河南西部、西南部、西北部及东部永城、沈丘一带。其中,黄淮西部的高风险主要是由晚霜冻高灾损引起的,河南西南部的高风险是由晚霜冻的高频率引起的,其西北部和东部的高风险则是由晚霜冻的高频率和高灾损共同引起的。The winter wheat spring frost damage mainly occurs in the Yellow River-Huai River regions.Based on the winter wheat data,the meteorological data at 54 agrometeoroligical observation stations from 1961 to 2008 and the results of frost-box experiment in the field,the technologies of spring frost disaster effect on growth of winter wheat by the WOFOST crop model are studied,and the influence of the spring frost on different growth periods of wheat is revealed.Using the technology of extracting the spring frost disaster damage from crop model,risk evaluation model is established with spring frost danger,exposure and fragility as the risk factors,and develops spring frost risk evaluation in recently 50 years in the Yellow River-Huai River regions.The results show that,the areas including western,southwestern,north western and eastern of Henan Province in Yellow River-Huai River regions are high risk,in which that high risk in western Henan is due to higher yield damage,and higher risk in southwestern Henan results from high frequency of spring frost,and higher risk in northwestern and eastern Henan is because of high frequency and high yield damage.

关 键 词：晚霜冻 WOFOST作物模型 冬小麦风险评估 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]