基于Bass模型的新产品商业化最优时机  

The Optimal Commercialization Timing of New Products Based on Bass Model

作　　者：燕夏敏[1] 林军[1] 崔文田[1] 钱艳俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程》2011年第12期63-69,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71001084;71072128;71101115);高等学校博士点专项基金资助项目(20100201120050;20100201110043)

摘　　要：在产品整个生命周期过程中,何时进行商业化是企业较为关注的一个问题。现有研究大多基于实物期权理论而未能考虑产品需求在生命周期过程中呈现的S型曲线扩散特征,因此分析结果与实际相差较大。本文基于企业期望成本最小化和利润最大化的本质属性,将广泛应用于新产品扩散领域的B ass模型引入到实物期权理论中,用其来刻画新产品在整个生命周期过程中需求的变化,从而建立新产品商业化最优时机问题的研究模型。结论能有效帮助企业制定新产品的商业化策略。研究结果发现当价格影响因子(价格对市场扩散速度的影响)足够小时,依据该模型确定的新产品商业化最优时机策略具有鲁棒性,并且价格影响因子对新产品商业化最优时机策略的影响与新产品所采用的价格策略有关。The optimal commercialization timing of new products has been given much attention by firms in Product Life Cycle（PLC）.The previous research was almost based on real option,failing to express the S-diffusion feature of product demand in Product Life Cycle,and resulting in the differences between the actual situation and the theoretical analysis.As firms expect to cost minimization and profit maximization,this paper incorporates bass model as widely used in the diffusion field to the theory of real option,describing changes of demand throughout the Product Life Cycle,and establishing the model of optimal commercialization timing of new products.The result can help firms to make decisions on commercializing products.The research results show that the optimal commercialization timing of new products is robust,when price impact factor（the effect of price on market diffusion speed） is small enough;and the effect of price impact factor on the optimal commercialization timing is also related to the pricing policies.

关 键 词：BASS模型 实物期权 产品生命周期 商业化时机 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]