基于洪水风险感知与空间多标准分析方法的土地使用类型研究  

Research on Land Use Type Based on Flood Risk Perception and Spatial Multi-Criteria

作　　者：孟博[1] 李国平 刘茂[1] 李清水 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]中原油田普光分公司HSE监督管理部,达州636156 [3]天津市大港安全生产监督管理局,天津300270

出　　处：《中国公共安全（学术版）》2011年第1期15-22,共8页China Public Security(Academy Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(项目号:200603746006);国家自然科学基金重点项目(项目号70833003)

摘　　要：传统的风险分析方法多为强调对事故发生概率与后果的定量分析,没有结合公众的风险感知获得更为有效的多元分析结果。通常,政府机构应用的风险区域土地规划的分析结果都是基于风险专家定量分析的结果。在结果中,很多无法准确定量化的指标,如:自然的发展状态、生物多样性、公众对待风险的态度等并不能体现结合进定量计算体系中,这使得整个风险区域的规划存在着一定的问题。本文应用一种实用的方法,用于平衡风险区域土地规划中的量化与非量化数据。最终将该方法用到位于中国安徽省淮河中游的淮南市淮河沿岸的土地规划中作为案例分析。In traditional risk analysis approaches,emphasis is put on quantitative analysis of accident probability and consequences but no effective multiple analysis results are obtained with risk perception of the public taken into consideration.Usually,analysis results used by the governmental organizations for land planning in risk areas are the results based on the experts＇ quantitative analysis.The results contain many indexes that can not be accurately quantified,such as development of nature,bio-diversity,and attitude of the public towards risks that can not be incorporated into quantitative calculation system,leading to the existence of problems in planning of whole risk areas.This paper presents a pragmatic approach for balancing quantified data and non-quantified data in land planning for risk areas.This approach is eventually used for case analysis in the planning for land along the banks of the Huai River in Huainan city in the middle reaches of the Huai River in Anhui Province,China.This approach integrates risk perception of the public and its application on the basis of spatial multi-criteria analysis.

关 键 词：淮南市 洪水 风险感知 影响因子 多标准示 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]