基于计算机模拟的突发事件下人群行为对比研究  

Studies on Crowd Behavior Comparative Under Emergency Based on Computer Simulation

作　　者：孟博[1] 邵理云 刘茂[1] 王丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]中原油田普光分公司HSE监督管理部,达州636156

出　　处：《中国公共安全（学术版）》2011年第1期34-40,共7页China Public Security(Academy Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(项目号:200603746006);国家自然科学基金重点项目(项目号:70833003)

摘　　要：当本文基于对聚集人群的观察和历史数据分析对人群行为进行研究,通过对常态下的人群行为和突发事件下的恐慌行为的对比,提出突发危机事件下的人群行为受到恐慌心理的巨大影响而由此形成影响行为的恐慌力,是形成危机事件下的人群与常态下的人群行为差异的主要原因。以此为基础,通过计算机模拟完成了火灾场景下的人群行为的动态特征。研究发现恐慌状态下人群的行为是复杂的,既有互助协作行为,也有竞争、人性丧失的行为。模拟的结果显示,人群的恐慌导致了人群移动速度和聚集密度的迅速增加,而速度的增加并不能提高疏散效率反而增加了人群的聚集风险。因此,在突发危机事件中,如何管理人群的行为,控制人群情绪是保障有效疏散的关键因素。Based on the observations and historical data about the crowd populations,this paper makes an investigation on the pedestrian behaviors and proposes a quantitative calculation model.By comparing the pedestrian movement under normal condition with the panic behavior under sudden emergency,it is suggested that the panic psychology has a potent effect on the behavior so as to formulate the panic force,which is a major factor for the differences among the pedestrian movements under normal and emergency conditions.The dynamic features of crowd is simulated and visualized for fire scenario by computer.It is found out that the behaviors of crowd in panic are complicated with both cooperation and competition.The simulation results show that the panic can cause rapid increase of the moving speed and crowd density,and the speed increase could not improve the evacuation efficiency,but magnify the crowd risk.Therefore,how to manage the behaviors of population and control the crowd emotions are the key factors to ensure the evacuation effectively under the situation of emerging crisis.

关 键 词：突发事件 人群行为 心理 恐慌 计算机模拟 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]