基于Monte Carlo和Rosenblueth方法的边坡可靠性分析及其在工程实践中的应用  

Reliability analysis of slopes based on the means of Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth

作　　者：张颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省煤田地质勘察设计研究院,吉林长春130026

出　　处：《吉林地质》2011年第4期99-102,共4页Jilin Geology

摘　　要：传统上常以安全系数作为边坡稳定性的评价指标,但是安全系数只是由一种确定的方法计算所得的一个定值,没有考虑设计参数的变异性,因此安全系数很难表征边坡的安全程度,为此本文引入了可靠度的概念,并运用基于概率论和数理统计学的蒙特卡洛法(Monte Carlo)和Rosenblueth法进行边坡可靠性分析,有效的弥补了边坡传统评价方法的不足。Traditionally,the safety factor which is a certain value calculated by a certain method was often used as evaluation indexes of slope stability.But the variability of parameters was not took into account,so the safety factor could not express the degree of slope safety.For this reason,the concept of reliability was imported in this paper,and the Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth methods based on probability theory and mathematical statistics were used into slope reliability analysis,therefor the shortages of traditional evaluation methodology was offseted effectively.

关 键 词：边坡 可靠性分析 MONTE Carlo Rosenblueth 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]