生命不确定性的跨期最优消费行为研究  

Study on Intertemporal Optimal Consummation Behavior under Uncertain Lifetime

作　　者：白仲林[1] 杨萍[2] 赵蓉[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院 [2]天津财经大学

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第2期28-33,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于Bayesian方法的面板单位根检验和协整检验方法研究”(70771072)的资助

摘　　要：本文首先根据中国收入分配制度的特点将消费者的生命周期区分为退休前和退休后,分别设置新古典经济学生命周期消费(Life-Cycles)理论的跨期预算约束;在生命不确定性的假设下,推导出了消费者的最优消费路径。而且,依据1988年1月-2008年12月天津市的城镇住户调查数据,利用动态伪面板数据模型的实证分析为理论结果提供了经验证据。另外,实证研究发现,①对于户主出生于1965年前的家庭,他们依然延续了传统的消费习惯,完善社会保障机制、转变他们的消费观念是拉动内需的必由之路;②跨期替代弹性接近于零,即城镇居民更倾向于即期消费;③期望通过货币政策的利率工具刺激城镇居民消费的作用很有限。In this paper,firstly the consumers＇ life cycle is divided into pre-retirement and retirement according to the characteristics of China＇s income system,and intertemporal budget constraints of life cycle consumption theory were set in the new classical economics; Under uncertain lifetime, the consumers＇ optimal consumption path is derived. Moreover, according to Tianjin household survey data during January 1988 to December 2008,the dynamic pseudo-panel data model provided empirical evidence for theoretical results. In addition, empirical findings are： （ 1 ） the family still continued the tradition of spending habits, if the head of the household was born before 1965. So, improving social security system, changing their concept of consumption is the only way to stimulate domestic demand; （2） the intertemporal substitution flexibility is close to zero （0. 008 ） , that is, urban residents prefer immediate consumption; （ 3 ） interest rates tools of monetary policy plays little role in stimulating the consumption of urban residents.

关 键 词：生命不确定性 跨期最优消费 动态伪面板数据模型 城镇住户调查数据 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]