基于Box-Cox Dogit模型的公共交通分担率预测  

Public Transportation Share Ratio Forecasting Based on Box-Cox Dogit Model

作　　者：刘好德[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院城市交通研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2012年第1期47-51,共5页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:50908173);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(批准号:20080430688;200902253);沃尔沃研究与教育基金会项目(批准号:VREF)资助

摘　　要：通过分析影响交通方式选择的外部因素和内部因素,基于最大随机效用理论,提出了城市公共交通分担率预测的非集计Box-Cox Dogit模型。针对模型的建立、参数标定以及计算过程进行了推导。最后结合杭州市的实际调查数据,进行了公共交通分担率的预测实验,独立样本检验结果表明,模型预测准确率较高。In order to analyze the passenger flow distribution in urban area accurately,the disaggregate Box-Cox Dogit model is presented to predict the public transportation share ratio in urban area.It is carried out by analyzing the outer and inner factors that affect the choice of transportation modes and considering the random utility theory.Model building,parameter calibration and calculation process are described.Finally,the proposed model and algorithm for forecasting the public transportation share ratio are tested by using the field survey data from Hangzhou City.The results of independent sample test indicate that the model has a finer precision and stability.

关 键 词：公共交通 分担率预测 非集计方法 Box-Cox Dogit模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]