我国极端降水事件研究进展  

Progresses in Researches on Extreme Precipitation over China

作　　者：王苗[1] 郭品文[1] 邬昀[1,2] 李京校[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害重点实验室(KLME),南京210044 [2]湖北省宜昌市气象局,宜昌443000

出　　处：《气象科技》2012年第1期79-86,共8页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"我国主要极端天气气候事件及其重大灾害监测;检测和预测关键技术研究"(2007BAC29B03)资助

摘　　要：全球变暖已经是既定的事实,在此背景下极端降水事件的频繁发生受到广泛的关注。从极端降水阈值的定义、极端降水变化特征、可能影响因子及模拟情况4个方面对国内近些年来极端降水事件的研究状况加以综述,指出目前对极端降水事件阈值的定义比较明确,极端降水长期变化特征有明显的区域性。由于我国降水状况受到东亚气候系统各个子系统的影响,其中机理极其复杂,所以对于极端降水的成因研究仍然不够彻底,相应地运用模式对其模拟和评估也有相对的不确定性。The recent progresses in researches on extreme precipitation over China are reviewed from the aspects of the thresholds,characteristics of variations,possible affecting factors,and simulation.The results indicate that recently the definitions of the thresholds are already clear and definite,and the long-term changes of extreme precipitation have obvious regional characteristics.Because the precipitation in China is affected by the various members of the East Asian climate system and the formation mechanisms are very complicated,the researches on the causes are not thorough enough.There are still some uncertainties in the simulation and estimation with the related application models.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 特征 模拟 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]