近55年珠江上游流域降水演变规律  

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Precipitation Variations for the Upstream of Pearl River Basin during the Past 55 Years

作　　者：张峰[1,2] 雷晓辉[2] 蒋云钟[2] 白建锋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2012年第1期49-54,共6页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目(51021006)

摘　　要：采用线性回归、5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall趋势检验及小波分析等方法,对珠江上游流域1954年-2008年降水序列进行研究分析。结果表明:近55年来,珠江上游流域年降水量总体呈不显著增加趋势;各季节降水均呈现无显著变化趋势;除1月降水增加显著外,其余各月均无明显趋势变化。流域各站点的年、季节降水趋势基本上也无显著变化。除年降水量在1963年发生了显著突变外,季节和大部分月降水均无显著突变发生。年和季节降水量的相位变化时间尺度大体一致,均存在多年尺度的变化特征。The linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the precipitation variations from 1954 to 2008 for the upstream of the Pearl River basin. The results showed that the annual precipitation has an insignificant trend in the recent 55 years. Seasonal and monthly precipitation also showed insignificant trends, ex- cept for January which has a significant increasing trend. The insignificant trends were also found for annual and seasonal precipitation of all the weather stations in the Pearl river basin. The annual precipitation had a significantly abrupt change in 1963 whereas there were no abrupt changes for seasonal and monthly precipitation. The annual and seasonal precipitation had the similar time scales of phase change, and both of them showed variations over years

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 珠江 降水 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]