航天电子设备可靠性评估方法研究  

Study on Assessment Method of Reliability of Spaceflight Electronic Device

作　　者：孙鹏[1] 赵阳[1] 董海平[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航天自动控制研究所,北京100854 [2]北京理工大学机电学院,北京100081

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2012年第2期265-269,共5页Chinese Journal of Space Science

摘　　要：建立了一种综合利用航天电子设备分系统可靠性信息和试验数据以及整机系统试验数据的Bayes可靠性评估方法.该方法利用最大熵方法融合分系统可靠性信息,推导了从分系统可靠性矩到系统可靠性矩的计算公式,然后建立了基于继承因子ρ的混合β先验分布,结合整机系统试验数据确定后验分布,最后,基于后验分布推断航天电子设备可靠性.采用该方法对航天电子设备可靠性进行了评估,当整机系统试验数据为240次时,航天电子设备在置信水平0.70的情况下可靠度可达到0.9991,所要求的整机系统试验次数比经典方法约降低了4/5.A Bayesian reliability assessment method for spaceflight electronic device is put forward. The method combines the reliability information of the whole system and its subsystems. At first, the maximum entropy method is used to syncretize reliability information of subsystems; then the calculation formulas of moments of system reliability are deduced from reliability moments of subsys- tems and inheritance factor is determined and mixed Beta distribution is built; finally, the posterior distribution is used to assess system reliability. With the new method, the reliability of a spaceflight electronic device is evaluated to reach 0.9991 under the confidence level 0.70 with 240 whole system tests which is one-fifth of system tests needed by the classical method. It is feasible to use the new method to assess reliability of spaceflight electronic device.

关 键 词：航天电子设备 可靠性 最大熵方法 混合β分布 继承因子 后验分布 

分 类 号：V443[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]