基于最大熵原理的旋转备用方案风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Spinning Reserve Scheme Based on Maximum Entropy Principle

作　　者：李如琦[1] 苏浩益[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学电气工程学院,广西壮族自治区南宁市530004

出　　处：《电网技术》2012年第3期241-245,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：电力市场环境下,市场成员成为各自独立的经济实体,各方存在的不确定性因素均可能导致系统旋转备用方案的经济效益与预期值产生误差。分析了提供旋转备用机组的运行状态的发生概率和各状态下旋转备用方案的收益,建立了基于最大熵原理的旋转备用方案的风险评估模型,并利用2阶模拟退火粒子群算法求解模型。该模型实现了对机组运行的可靠性和经济性的综合评价。算例结果验证了该模型的有效性。In the environment of electricity market, market participants become independent economic entities, so existing uncertainty factors in various aspects may lead to the difference between actual value and desired value of economic profit of spinning reserve scheme. The occurrence probability of operation conditions of the units that can provide spinning reverse and the revenue of spinning reverse schemes under varous operational conditions are analyzed, and a maximum entropy priciple base risk assessemnt model for spinning reverse schemes is built, and the built model is solved by improved second-order simulated annealing and algorithm particle swarm optimization （SSA-PSO）. Using the proposed model, comprehensive evaluation on reliability and economy of unit operation can be implemented. Calculation example results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：电力市场 旋转备用 最大熵 模拟退火 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]