“自顶向下”的科技规划——基于专利数据和技术路线图的新方法  

"UP-to-down" science &technology planning:a new approach based on patent data and technology roadmapping

作　　者：郭颖[1] 汪雪锋[2] 朱东华[2] 张嶷[2] 郭俊芳[2] 赵晨晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学外国语学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《科学学研究》2012年第3期349-358,共10页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：国家软科学研究研究计划(2008GXS3K056)

摘　　要：当今世界,科学技术快速发展,新兴技术大量涌现,若能够准确地进行科技规划,使得创新主体及时站在正确的发展趋势方向上,将会使其在未来激烈的全球化市场竞争中占据极为有利的地位。因此,研究有效的科技规划制定方法,具有重大的现实意义。本文提出的产业科技规划研究方案,与以往"自底向上"的技术选择方案不同,本方案"自顶向下"逐层分解,找到该行业发展的关键所在,将模糊的、宏观的行业规划具体化,研究结果用于辅助该行业科技规划制定的决策过程。本文以我国太阳能电池技术行业为分析案例,首先总结了该行业所面临的整体创新环境,接着以技术热点分析和技术质量分析重点剖析了我国在该技术领域的发展趋势与主要问题,最后以行业路线图和产业链图揭示了在生产过程中我国企业所面临的具体问题和可能解决方案,并由此提出我国该行业科技规划建议。Nowadays, the new technologies emerge in endlessly. If we could map out the Science ＆ Technology Planning correctly, in- novation shareholder will timely stand on the development trend of technology, and occupy a very advantageous position in the future fierce competition of global market. Thus, to formulate effective S＆T planning is significant. This paper proposes a industry S＆T plan- ning framework. Different from previous ones,this methodology goes along up - to - down, tries to find out the key elements in some specific technology area, and aims to aid in S＆T planning. China＇s solar cells industry is employed as the case study. Firstly, whole environment is mapped out for this technology. Then, technology trend analysis and quality analysis are carried out to reveal future di- rection and major issues of China＇ s solar cells industry. Finally, industry roadmap and innovation chain map reveals the problems and possible solutions of China＇s enterprises, and thus make planning proposals for this technology industry.

关 键 词：科技规划 专利分析 技术路线图 产业规划 “自顶向下”规划 太阳能电池 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]