我国增值税扩围对财政体系代际平衡状况的影响  

Impact of Value-added Tax Broadening on China's Fiscal System——From Generational Balance Perspective

作　　者：蒋云赟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第3期21-30,共10页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(负责人:蒋云赟;项目批准号:70803002);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(负责人:蒋云赟;项目批准号:08JC790005)资助

摘　　要：本文用代际核算方法分析我国增值税扩围对财政体系可持续性的影响。核算结果表明,如果我们把营业税的宏观税负由2009年7.93%提高到和增值税的宏观税负一致,可以大幅缓解我国财政体系目前的代际不平衡状况。分行业模拟表明,我们将交通运输、仓储和邮政业,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,以及住宿和餐饮业纳入增值税的征税范围,对财政体系的可持续性不会有太大影响;房地产业和金融业由于较高的增值率,将其纳入增值税的征税范围会缓和我国财政体系目前的代际不平衡状况;我们要谨慎考虑建筑业纳入增值税征收范围后的抵扣项目。This paper considers hscal impact of value-added tax broadening using the technique of generational accounting. It shows if the effect tax rate ot turnover tax is mcreased to me level of value-added tax, the ratio of per capita generational accounts of future generations to zero-age generation in 2009 decreased from 1. 4641 to 1. 1503 and generational imbalance of fiscal system could be lessened. Industry simulation shows that generational balance situation could not be influenced if the value-added tax is levied on Transport, Storage and Post industry, Information Transmission, Computer Services and Software industry, as well as Hotel and Catering Services industry- Generational imbalance could be lessened if turnover tax of Financial Intermediation industry and Real Estate industry was replaced by value-added tax. pay more attention to valueadded tax on Construction industry should be dealt with caution.

关 键 词：代际核算 代际平衡 增值税扩围 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]