四川省“十二五”节能目标对碳排放强度的贡献分析  

Contribution Analysis of Energy Saving Target to Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity

作　　者：胡延龙[1] 马光文[1] 王靖[1] 叶玉健[1] 张杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [2]四川省经济发展研究院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第3期205-207,216,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(50539140);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679098);国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2008BAB29B09);美国能源基金会"中国可持续能源"基金资助项目(G-0610-08581)

摘　　要：基于四川省"十二五"期间单位GDP能耗下降目标,通过假设不同的发展情景建立了节能目标对碳排放强度的贡献分析模型,并以"十一五"期间四川省经济和能耗数据为基础,求得不同情景下碳排放强度降幅和二氧化碳累积减排量。结果表明,在单位GDP能耗下降16%的目标下,"十二五"期间四川省碳排放强度降幅为14.17%～22.43%,二氧化碳累积减排量为2.04×108～3.26×108t。同时控制煤炭、石油消费及增加天然气、水电等优质能源的消费比例是四川省实现"十二五"碳排放强度下降目标的有效途径。Based on the target of energy consumption per GDP decreasing during the 12th five-year-plan period in Sichuan Province, an analysis model of the contribution done by the energy saving target to carbon emission intensity is established via different hypothetical development scene. And the drop of the carbon emission intensity and the total carbon dioxide emission reductions are calculated on the basis of the economic and energy consumption data during the llth five year-plan in Sichuan Province. The results show that with the target of energy consumption per GDP decreasing 16G, during the 12th five-year-plan period, the drop of the carbon emission intensity would be 14.17G-22.43G and the total carbon dioxide emission reductions would he 2.04×10^8-3.26 ×10^8 t; the effective way for Sichuan Province to achieve the dropping of carbon emission intensity is to control the consumption of coal and petroleum as well as to increase the consumption proportion of natural gas and hydroelectricity.

关 键 词：节能目标 单位GDP能耗 碳排放强度 发展情景 四川省 

分 类 号：TK011[动力工程及工程热物理]