北京市肺炎和支气管炎疾病医疗气象预报的初步研究  

The Basic Research on Medical-Meteorological Forecast of Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease in Beijing

作　　者：李津[1] 高思华[2] 韩超[1] 张德山[1] 宛公展[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象局,北京100089 [2]北京中医药大学,北京100086 [3]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300381

出　　处：《求医问药（下半月刊）》2011年第11期3-5,共3页Seek Medical and Ask The Medicine

基　　金：北京市教育委员会共建项目(No.200901);北京中医药大学自主选题项目(No.2009JYBZZ_JS001)

摘　　要：通过整理北京市东直门中医院10年(1998～2007年)肺炎和支气管炎疾病(肺炎+支气管炎定义为呼吸道疾病,下同)的逐日发病资料,并将其病例资料与同步气象要素作多元回归分析;发现肺炎和支气管炎疾病发病与前期环境气象因子之间存在一定关联。研究成果采用偏相关算法,筛选出贡献较大的组合气象因子,组建肺炎和支气管炎疾病的非线性预报模式,预报模式的复相关系数平均可达R=0.1982,通过了相应的统计学检验(建模样本3205,信度取0.01,Rc<0.05)。为满足公共气象服务需要,应用概率分级方法,建立了5个等级的肺炎和支气管炎疾病预报模式及风险水平评估体系。如果把呼吸道疾病预报值与实际等级相差≤±1级统计为正确,呼吸道疾病预报的正确率可达75%。其中,呼吸道疾病预报值与实际等级完全一致可占到35%。由此可见,肺炎和支气管炎疾病预报结果,可为各级疾控中心及相关部门,指导广大城乡居民预防保健提供客观的科学依据。To investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease,and establish Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease non-liner forecast mode,we use Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease sample data from Dongzhimen Chinese medicine hospital,select determining meteorological factors from partial correlation coefficient analysis,and establish non-liner Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease forecast mode.Multiple correlation coefficient of the mode is 0.1982,which passed statistic test（3205 samples,reliability is 0.01） .For meteorological service,grading the possibility of Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease to 5 grads.The forecast error less than one grad is 75%,and total correct forecast is 35%.The Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease forecast could be used as scientific basis by the Centers for Disease Control or citizens to prevent Pneumonia and Bronchitis Disease.

关 键 词：肺炎和支气管炎疾病 疾病发病风险水平评估 逐日医疗气象预报 

分 类 号：R122.26[医药卫生—环境卫生学]