水稻生产效益盈亏平衡分析与农户期望——基于湖南省210家农户的调查数据  

Break-even analysis of rice production efficiency and households' expectations:Based on the survey data of 210 households in Hunan

作　　者：蒋元[1] 李丹[2] 汪翔[3] 彭新德[2] 林中[2] 张焕裕[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省农村科技发展中心,湖南长沙410001 [2]湖南省农业信息与工程研究所,湖南长沙410125 [3]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第1期20-26,共7页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技计划支撑项目(2009BADA9B03-4)

摘　　要：基于2008―2010年湖南洞庭湖区、洞庭湖边沿地区、丘陵区和山区10个样点县(市、区)200个典型农户(散户)和10个种植大户的水稻生产调查数据,分析了散户和专业大户水稻生产成本构成和产量产值效益、水稻生产效益的盈亏平衡点。结果表明,散户每季平均单产为6 951.3 kg/hm2;产值为12 863.78元/hm2;成本为10 249.6元/hm2;盈利为2 613.15元/hm2,享受种田补贴后,盈利水平提高;户平种植水稻收益为2 266.00元,山区最低,平原区最高。专业户每季平均单产为7 169.3 kg/hm2;产值为14 202.99元/hm2;成本为12 429.8元/hm2;盈利为1 773.24元/hm2。这说明湖南水稻生产成本高、盈利水平低、内在风险大。农户最低期望盈利年平2.0～2.8万元/户,需要耕地规模3.4～5.3 hm2,需要实行土地流转才可实现。种植大户最低期望盈利3 000元/hm2,实现这一目标需提高单产623.5 kg/hm2,或给予种田补贴1 234.6元/hm2。Based on rice production survey data of 200 typical farmers（retails） and 10 plantation farmers （specialists） in 10 sample counties （cities, districts） in plain area （Dongting Lake area）, the plain area （edge area of Dongting Lake） and hilly and mountainous areas in Hunan province from 2008 to 2010, this paper analyzes rice production cost structure and production output value of benefits, profit and loss equilibrium point of dee production efficiency from retails and specialists. The results show that the quarterly average yield of retails is 6 951.3 kg/hm^2; output value is 12 863.78 yuan/hm^2; the cost is 10 249.6 yuan/hm^2; the profit is 2 613.15 yuan/hm^2, got farm subsidies, the level of profitability improved; household plantation rice income is 2 266.00 yuan, the mountain areas has the lowest income, while the plain areas has the highest. The quarterly average yield of specialists is 7 169.3 kg/hm^2; output value is 14 202.99 yuan/hm^2; the cost is 12 429.8 yuan/hm^2; the profit is 1 773.24 yuan/hm^2.This shows that cost of Hunan rice production is high, the profitability is low, and the inherent risk exists. The reality is that the farmers＇ minimum profit expectation of yearly average is 20 000- 28 000 yuan/household, the farmland scale is 3.4 to 5.3 hm^2, which can be achieved by the implementation of land circulation.Plantation farmers（specialists）＇minimum profit expectation is 3 000 yuan/hm^2, it can be realized by improving per unit area yield to 623.5 kg/hm^2,or giving farm subsidies 1 234.6 yuaa/hm^2.

关 键 词：水稻生产效益 盈亏平衡点 期望值 散户 专业户 湖南 

分 类 号：F326.111[经济管理—产业经济]