中国低碳养殖的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因分析  

Characteristics of Environmental Kuznets Curve for the Low Carbon Breeding in China and Its Causes

作　　者：田素妍[1] 郑微微[2] 周力[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学中国新农村建设研究院,南京210095 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第3期481-493,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金(编号:10YJC790407);教育部博士点基金(编号:20100097120009);中央高校基本科研经费(编号:Y0201100268);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究基金(编号:09SJD790035)

摘　　要：根据IPCC畜禽养殖碳排放计算方法及系数,本文选取2003年-2009年省际面板数据,测算出畜禽养殖碳排放总量,并建立了经济发展水平与畜禽养殖碳排放的经济计量模型,对二者的关系进行分地区的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证。同时,文章还建立面板数据模型,对碳排放的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①东部地区存在显著的"倒U型"关系,中、西部地区则存在显著的"正U型"关系,这与区域经济增长水平和低碳技术的创新密切相关;②劳动力价格、土地价格、畜禽产品消费总量、高速公路密度和产业结构对碳排放的影响显著为负;幼畜禽价格和恩格尔系数对碳排放的影响显著为正;城市化率对碳排放的影响在东中部地区显著为负,而在西部地区显著为正;③对当前地区碳排放趋势的贡献,东部地区劳动力价格、城市化率和土地价格等多种因素对碳排放的作用显著,中部地区收入水平对碳排放趋势的贡献最大,而西部地区除了经济水平外,城市化率对碳排放的贡献也比较明显。The carbon emission problem of livestock and poultry breeding has become an environmental problem that cannot be ignored in China. Researches on the characteristics of carbon emission and the affecting factors about livestock and poultry breeding have great significance for the improvement of low carbon technology and the development of low carbon industry. Therefore, according to the IPCC carbon emission calculation method and coefficient about livestock and poultry breeding, this paper has selected the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2009 and calculated the total carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding. Meanwhile, it has divided China＇s livestock and poultry breeding into eastern, central and western parts and set up measurement models of the economic development level and the carbon emissions of livestock and poultry breeding to make EKC verification on their relations in different parts. In addition, the paper has made factor decomposition for the carbon emission intensity and decomposed the environmental technology into low-carbon farming technology and manure processing technology based on logarithmic mean weight division method and carbon emission decomposition method. Then it has also set up a panel data model to make regression analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions. The results show that：1） The eastern region shows a significant ＂inverted U curve＂, but the central and western areas both show an obvious ＂U curve＂, which have close relationship with the regional economic growth level and the low carbon technology innovation; 2） Labor price, land price, total consumption of livestock and poultry products, expressway density and industrial structure show significantly negative impact on the carbon emission while the young livestock and poultry prices and Engel coefficient show significantly positive impact; the impact of urbanization rate on carbon emissions in eastern and central regions is significantly negative, but in the western region is significantly pos

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 碳排放 低碳养殖 面板数据 

分 类 号：S811[农业科学—畜牧学] X322[农业科学—畜牧兽医]