人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于1995～2011年数据  

Impact of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on China's Import and Export——An Empirical Study Based on Data through 1995-2011

作　　者：何建奎[1] 马红[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2012年第2期43-47,125,共5页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文采用基于VAR的Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正(VEC)模型实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的长期静态影响及短期动态影响。结果发现,长期进出口贸易的汇率弹性均不显著,进口的汇率弹性较大,出口几乎无汇率弹性;长期进出口贸易的变化主要由国内外收入决定;短期内,进出口的汇率弹性同为负,即汇率贬值,进出口均增加,汇率升值降低出口的同时,进口也会下降且下降幅度大于出口的减少;而且向长期均衡调整的力度较小。因此说明单纯的汇率调整不能有效改善我国的贸易不平衡问题。This paper conducts an empirical study of the long-term static and short-term dynamic impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's import and export by using the Johansen cointegration test and building the VEC model.The results show that in long-term,both import and export are not sensitive to the change of REER with insignificance though the exchange rate elasticity of import is larger than that of export.In the short-term,both import and export exchange rate elasticity are negative,which means if REER depreciates,import and export will increase together,and if REER appreciate,both will decrease with more import decrease.And it is slow to adjust to the equilibrium.The conclusion is that only exchange rate policy cannot change the imbalance of China's trade.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 进出口贸易 汇率弹性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6F752.6