基于博弈论石化园区火灾跨区域灭火救援研究  

Study on Cross-regional Fire Fighting and Rescue in Petrochemical Park Based on Game Theory

作　　者：朱康[1] 刘斌 周德闯[1] 朱霁平[1] 汪箭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230027 [2]阿克苏地区公安消防支队防火处,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第1期172-176,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(910240027)

摘　　要：为解决石油化工园区火灾跨区域灭火救援面临的多消防中队相互协作、消防资源优化配置等复杂问题,搭建以新疆阿克苏地区消防力量为救援基础的原油储罐火灾场景,结合Gambit软件建立博弈计算模型,设计跨区域灭火救援方案的通用流程。针对不同火灾规模,以跨区域灭火救援通用制定流程为指导,计算出相应的消防中队战斗组合及救援力量输出。针对火灾发展的不确定性,通过混合策略博弈计算进一步调整和完善跨区域灭火救援方案。结果表明,采用博弈论方法能够提供针对消防资源调度分配的新方法,用以制定更快速和易于调整的灭火救援方案。In order to deal with such complex problems as mutual coordination and optimal resource allocation among fire squadrons, a fire scenario was constructed based on the crude oil storage tank fire in the district of Aksu, Xinjiang. Meanwhile, a computational model using game theory related to the practical fire scenario was developed, general rules of making the cross-reglonal fire-fighting and rescue plan was designed with the Gambit software. According to the rules, the corresponding combination and fire resource outputs from different fire squadrons were quickly calculated in terms of the fire sizes. The calculation of mixed strat- egy game was discussed by taking the uncertain factors during the fire expansion into consideration, and preplans could be further improved and optimized. The computational model using game theory provides a new method for making a quick and flexible cross-regional fire-fighting and rescue plan.

关 键 词：博弈论 灭火救援 应急管理 资源配置 跨区域 重大危险源 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]