外资银行并购与退出决策的实物期权模型  

The merger and exit decisions model of foreign banks by real options approach

作　　者：刘彬[1] 曾勇[1] 李强[1] 邓世杰 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054 [2]美国佐治亚理工大学工业与系统工程系,亚特兰大30332

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第3期522-534,共13页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70872016);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20090785120001)

摘　　要：考虑未来并购政策出台时机和信贷市场规模双重不确定性的影响,构建了外资银行并购本地银行和退出的实物期权决策模型,重点分析了市场与政策不确定性和银行自身特征对外资银行并购和退出决策的影响,结论表明:随着政策出台速度的加快和市场不确定性的增加,外资银行退出的可能降低,同时并购和退出临界值之差逐渐增加表明外资银行更加愿意维持股权合作;股权合作机会成本高和风险控制技术弱的外资银行更加不可能实施并购,而更加可能退出;股权比例高的外资银行实施并购和退出的可能性都低,即更加愿意维持股权合作.Taking both tile uncertainty of the release timing of policy restriction on merging domestic banks and that of the credit market size into account, this paper develops a real option model to analyze the effects of two kinds of uncertainties as well as banks＇ specific characteristics on the foreign banks＇ merging and exit decision. The results show that when the release of policy restriction on foreign banks＇ merging activities speeds up and the uncertainty about market size increases, foreign banks prefer to cooperate with a domestic bank, rather than exit the market. Moreover, we find that foreign banks with a high opportunity cost or poor screening techniques prefer to exit the market. However, foreign banks with a high equity stake in domestic banks would like to continue to cooperate with a domestic bank.

关 键 词：外资银行 并购 退出 政策限制 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]