一次乌山阻高控制的喀什连阴雪多种模式预报能力对比分析  

Contrastive analysis on forcasting abilitiy of several numerical forecasting modles which analyzed a rare snow cold weather coused by Ural Mountains blocking high during 2010 in Kashgar

作　　者：黄艳 裴江文 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区喀什地区气象台,喀什市844000

出　　处：《青海气象》2012年第1期33-37,共5页Journal of Qinghai Meteorology

摘　　要：采用欧洲中期数值预报模式ECWMF和国家气象中心T639数值预报模式、T213数值预报模式的500hPa位势高度、700hPa相对湿度、850hPa温度预报格点资料和客观分析实况格点资料,对喀什地区2010年的一次罕见低温阴雪过程、3种模式的预报能力进行对比分析检验。结果表明:3个模式预报低压槽偏强,高压脊偏弱,EC比T639、T213在形势上有更好的准确率和可信度,但物理量场T639有更好地参考价值。This article used grid data and objective analysis of live data grid of the geopotential height of 500 hPa. temperature prediction of 850 hPa of European medium-term numerical prediction model ECWMF and National Meteorological Center numerical prediction model T639,numerical prediction model T213,we analyzed a raresnow cold weather which coused by Ural Mountains blocking high during 2010 in Kashgar,comparect and ana- lyzed the forcasting abilitiy of fhe three modles o The results show that three models predict trough stronger,ridge weak,EC has better accuracy and the credibility than T639, T213 in form,but physical parameter field of T639 has a better reference value

关 键 词：检验要素 欧洲数值预报模式 T639数值预报模式 T213数值预报模式 对比分析检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]