长期增长过程的“结构性加速”与“结构性减速”:一种解释  

Structural Accelerating and Structural Decelerating in the LongRun Growth:An Exposition

作　　者：袁富华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2012年第3期127-140,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金"中国经济快速增长时期的动力;源泉与模式研究"(10BJY004);国家社会科学基金重大招标课题"提高宏观调控水平与保持经济平稳较快发展研究"(09&ZD017)的资助

摘　　要：立足于Mitchell和Maddison的历史统计数据库,本文对发达国家增长因素进行了分析,阐释了以下事实,即1970年代以后发达国家经济增长的减速,与生产率增长的减速密切相关,而生产率的减速是由于产业结构服务化这种系统性因素造成的。为此,本文提出了长期增长过程中"结构性加速"与"结构性减速"的观点。这种观点一方面系统化和清晰化了人们关于长期增长趋势的认识,另一方面在"结构性加速"向"结构性减速"过渡期间的经济问题也更容易得到解释和预测。未来几十年,中国经济结构的服务化趋势逐渐增强,"结构性加速"向"结构性减速"转换及相应问题将会凸显。相对于其他理论而言,这种观点对于中国的工业化和城市化问题可能具有更强、更直观的解释能力。Based on the Mitchell＇ s international historical statistics and Maddison＇ s historical statistics, this paper analyzes the factors influenced the long run growth. The fact that the decelerating of GDP growth appeared in developed countries linked tightly with the decelerating of productivity growth, which caused by the service sector development. So, this paper illustrates the view of structural accelerating and structural decelerating in the long run growth. On the one hand, our understanding about the long run growth trend is systematized by this view, on the other hand, some problems related to the transition from structural accelerating to structural decelerating could be interpreted and forecasted easily. China＇ s economic growth would encounter such problems in the near future, and this view could provide a useful tool for understanding the questions.

关 键 词：经济增长 结构性加速 结构性减速 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]